I’m not asking you to come and do something. I’m asking you to come and know something. Something that will help you hear what you’re hearing and translate it as an investor.
You are undoubtedly being bombarded with messages of doom and gloom, as I am. Your heart rate, like mine, can rise and fall at times based on some of the information and some of the presentations and presenters that are getting involved. In the back of our minds we know that everyone talking about a FISCAL CLIFF has some kind of an angle.
The Rs want us to know that if they cave, it’s because they cared about you, not because they have no spine. I don’t believe them.
The Ds want us to know that if no resolution is met, it’s the Rs that threw you all under the bus, and it’s them who really care. I don’t believe that either.
The media wants you to watch them 24/7 (which they are succeeding at like never before, by the way). This I believe. This is the issue.
I want you to know the actual truth, which is impossible to get from the above 3 sources or the internet and is something that can give you real peace of mind with respect to your investments.
Here it is: There is no FISCAL CLIFF.
It’s a made-up term that has caught on because it describes how we are feeling about debt, taxes, and deficits. It is not based in any objective reality.
And I can prove it to you.
What is the Fiscal Cliff referring to?
I could come up with 100 concepts, but I think there are five main areas that are being discussed by those who talk about it:
- Recession, defined as negative growth or decline in GDP.
- Inflation (even just the fear of it), defined as the rise in the price of goods and services that we buy.
- Increasing unemployment. Is it 7.9%, 8.5% or 15%. It depends on how you define it. I think it’s the latter, but who cares?
- Socialism – the rise of government involvement in markets and increased regulation of businesses.
- National Debt – the rise in the debt ceiling, the impending default on that debt, and our position with the lenders.
All of this is then tied to the stock market in loose terms. The news media prefers down days when they can end the negative news with:
“the DOW is down X points”
The fact of the matter is that in November, as of this writing (28th), there have been 18 trading days, 9 of which were positive and 9 negative. The price of the S&P 500 today is within a few points of where it was on November 1. There is no correlation between their news stories and the rise or fall of the stock market. They have conditioned us to believe otherwise.
They are wrong, and we can show you.
On January 15th, at the University Club, in addition to the same great food, atmosphere and great company, I will answer the following questions:
1. Under which political bent (President in the white house) does the stock market do better – Republican or Democrat?
2. What has super inflation done for stock investors?
3. What is the correlation between stock-market growth and GDP growth or decline?
4. What is the correlation between stock-market growth and socialism (less economic freedom and higher regulation)?
Sign up today.
I expect this event to sell out. Call us or email to reserve your seat. First priority will be given to clients and their guests.
I look forward to seeing you on January 15